El Nino: ‘Drought, extreme heat, wildfires’: 180+ scientists sound alarm over ‘super’ El Nino | India News
NEW DELHI: With India’s monsoon season ending on a rain-deficit note, more than 180 scientists and ecologists have issued an urgent appeal to prepare for what they warn could be an exceptionally strong El Nino. They have flagged risks ranging from drought and extreme heat to wildfires and damage to ecosystems.The appeal comes as the southwest monsoon begins its annual retreat. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) earlier on said that the monsoon had withdrawn from parts of West Rajasthan and conditions were favourable for further withdrawal from parts of Rajasthan, Punjab, Saurashtra and Kutch over the next three to four days.India has recorded a 15 per cent rainfall deficit between June 4 and September 19, according to IMD data. The Southern Peninsula has recorded the largest shortfall at 29 per cent. June saw a 35 per cent deficit, while July was the only month to record above-average rainfall. August rainfall stood at 213.3 mm, the seventh-lowest for the month since 2001.The scientists said the warning signs of El Nino were already evident in the tropical Pacific, where sea-surface temperatures have risen above the 0.5°C threshold and crossed 2.6°C in August. Projections cited in their appeal indicate anomalies could rise above 4°C.Earlier this month, the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) said prevailing El Nino conditions were likely to intensify into “a very strong event” in the coming months and persist through February 2027.The scientists urged researchers to use the advance warning to expand monitoring and document changes across India’s ecosystems.“We call upon fellow ecologists to respond by strengthening and expanding our research and monitoring efforts to better understand the effects of extreme climate events on the natural world and connected social systems,” they said.They warned that a strong El Nino could bring drought and extreme heat, putting pressure on farmers, fishermen and shepherds. They also flagged coral bleaching and mortality, more wildfires and the loss of large rainforest trees.The appeal also highlighted less visible ecological changes, including shifts in animal behaviour and delayed fruit production.“In addition though, more subtle impacts on India’s nature — including delayed fruit production or changes in animal behaviour — could be equally important, but may be much less visible unless you are specifically looking for them,” the signatories said.
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Roxy Mathew Koll, a climate scientist with the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, told news agency PTI that the coming period should be used to both track and protect vulnerable ecosystems.“We must document these changes as they unfold, but also safeguard the ecosystems that remain and reduce the pressures already weakening them,” Koll said. “What we learn and protect during this El Nino can help India prepare for a warmer and more volatile future.”
